Drought 2026: France's potato harvest to fall by at least 23 percent

France faced five consecutive heatwaves in the summer of 2026. From mid-May, rainfall was scarce and the soil was extremely dry. Yicai reported the impact on September 1: potato production in the country will fall by at least 23 percent compared to the previous year, potentially the lowest result in more than thirty years.

"Last year we harvested slightly more than 43.5 tonnes per hectare. This year the forecast is around 34.5 tonnes per hectare," said Geoffroy D'Evry, president of the national potato growers' association. He added that this is lower even than 2022, which was itself a historically weak year. The industry estimates its losses at nearly 400 million euros.

Why the drop, when the area was cut

Two factors combined to cause the decline. First, after overproduction in 2025, potato plantings were reduced by 10 percent in France and by 11 percent in north-western Europe. Second, the weather. In the Netherlands, the late-June heat and subsequent drought have caused potato fields to age rapidly. Field reports show that losses are not limited to the traditionally dry regions of southern Europe.

Belgium matters for the french fry market. It is the world's largest exporter of frozen fries, processing more than 6 million tonnes of potatoes a year, with about 90 percent of the finished product going to more than 120 markets. A shortage of raw material there quickly affects availability and prices across the entire chain.

Grains: maize at its lowest in decades

Potatoes are not the only problem. A late-July 2026 brief from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre cut yield forecasts for almost every summer crop in the Union: maize and sunflower down 6 to 7 percent, winter crops by 1 to 4 percent, and total EU grain production about 1 percent below the five-year average. Andrew Kanyemba of the analytics platform Expana says outright that EU maize is "the biggest worry": the harvest is set to fall to its lowest level since 1995, and France, the region's main producer, may post its worst result since 1977.

For the consumer, the total cost is what counts: more expensive potato raw material and more expensive feed grain translate into higher prices for fries, bread and meat. The FAO grain index rose in August 2026 to 116.3 points, the highest since May 2024. The 2026 drought is therefore not only a problem for farmers: it is an item in the shopping basket.