GSMA: 6G to hit 2.4 billion connections by 2035, but 5G remains

The first half of the 2030s will be a period of coexistence rather than replacement. Italy's CorCom cites a GSMA Intelligence forecast: roughly 50 million 6G connections worldwide in 2030, about half a percent of all mobile subscriptions. That number should reach 275 million a year later and close to 740 million by the end of 2032. In 2033, 6G will surpass one billion, ending the year at approximately 1.3 billion connections. The growth continues to 1.9 billion in 2034 and 2.4 billion in 2035.

Analysts divide the cycle into two phases. From 2030 to 2032, the focus is on individual deployments and ecosystem building. Global scale operations are expected only from 2033. Crucially, 6G expansion does not spell the end of 5G. By the end of 2035, fifth-generation networks are still projected to handle about 60 percent of mobile connections, 6G 23 percent, and LTE 17 percent. Adoption will start in East Asia, North America, and Europe, with China driving the volumes.

Why the network must change

The driver is traffic, not ambition. Mobile traffic is set to grow from 204 exabytes a month to 846 exabytes, an increase of about 15 percent annually. CorCom notes that 6G will integrate AI functions and integrated sensing and communication (ISAC). This requires more spectrum and significantly higher automation in network management.

Research infrastructure is being built in parallel. According to the Chinese portal IT之家, Hubei Mobile and its partners are constructing a 6G industry test zone in Wuhan's Optics Valley district. The partners include China Information and Communication Technologies Group, the Zhongguancun Panlian institute, and the Huazhong University of Science and Technology. By 2027, three infrastructures will be in place: the most comprehensive 6G test network in Chinese plans, an open research platform combining communication, sensing, and computing, and a test platform for intelligent reconfigurable surfaces. 6G base stations will cover approximately 3.3 square kilometres in Wuhan's future technology park.

The same report highlights a broader mobilization in China. During the same period, prototype 6G station tests in the U6G band with Qualcomm were announced. China Unicom and China SatNet also unveiled a 6G laboratory linking space, air, and ground, along with a goal to build a modern communications network with leading parameters by 2030.

What it means in practice

For operators, the coming years remain focused on 5G investment rather than 6G. GSMA explicitly states that the second half of the decade will be devoted to expanding fifth-generation coverage. For Europe, the challenge is scale, not the standard itself. If China and East Asia generate the 6G volumes, European operators will enter the technology as buyers of ready-made solutions rather than co-authors of the standard. The forecast's conclusion is less sensational than the 2.4 billion figure suggests: whoever reaches volume first sets the rules.