Poland's GDP growth accelerated to 3.8 percent in Q2 2026

Poland's economy is picking up speed. The Central Statistical Office's flash estimate puts GDP growth at 3.8 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2026, following a 3.5 percent increase in the first quarter. Quarter on quarter, growth stood at 0.9 percent, compared with 0.6 percent three months earlier.

Finance Minister Andrzej Domański commented on the data on X: "The Polish economy is growing. And faster and faster!" He noted that the government had "unlocked investment, European funds and financing for local governments," adding that "in times of global uncertainty, Poland chooses development."

The reading matched market expectations. Economists surveyed by PAP Biznes had forecast growth of 3.8 percent year on year, so Wednesday's estimate surprised no one. The CSO will publish full second-quarter GDP data on 31 August.

For comparison, the European Commission's spring forecast assumes Polish GDP growth of 3.5 percent in 2026 and 2.8 percent in 2027. Brussels kept both figures while raising its inflation and deficit forecasts. This combination, faster growth alongside rising price pressure, is currently the main theme of Poland's economic debate.

Growth above 3.5 percent is holding up as the entire Union approaches a slowdown. The Commission cut its 2026 growth forecast for the EU from 1.4 to 1.1 percent, citing the energy shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Poland is weathering this better than the core of the euro area. However, a World Bank report indicates that part of the investment impulse comes from projects tied to artificial intelligence and digitalisation, rather than a broad revival across all sectors.

The Central Statistical Office will publish full data on the structure of growth on 31 August. These figures will show how much of the momentum comes from consumption and how much from gross fixed capital formation, including infrastructure and digital projects. The key to assessing the sustainability of the acceleration is whether investment is rising, or only current spending.

The external backdrop remains difficult. The European Commission forecasts growth of 1.1 percent for the whole Union in 2026 and only 2.8 percent for Poland the following year. Poland is growing more than three times faster than the community average, though part of that edge reflects a stronger rebound from the low investment base of earlier years.