IATA: 5.085 billion passengers to fly in 2026, but profit will halve

IATA's 2026 forecast shows an industry split between record passenger numbers and shrinking margins. Airlines will carry 5.085 billion people, 118 million more than the estimated 4.967 billion in 2025 and 525 million more than in 2019, the last full pre-pandemic year. In 2020, only 1.779 billion passengers flew.

Origin-destination traffic, which counts connections only once, should reach 4.343 billion. Total flights are expected to hit 38.7 million. Traffic measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) will rise by just 2.1 percent, down from 5.3 percent in 2025. Available seat kilometres (ASK) will increase by 1.6 percent. The passenger load factor will stand at 84.0 percent, up from 83.5 percent a year earlier and 82.6 percent in 2019.

Revenue up, profit down

Industry revenue will reach USD 1.165 trillion, a 9.4 percent increase over 2025. Passenger traffic accounts for USD 839 billion, cargo for USD 162 billion, and ancillary services for USD 165 billion. Unit economics are improving: revenue per passenger kilometre in real terms gains 7.0 percent, while total unit revenue rises by 7.5 percent.

Costs are rising faster, reaching USD 1.117 trillion in total, up 13.0 percent. Fuel is the largest cost item at USD 350 billion, or 31.4 percent of all spending. IATA assumes Brent crude at 95 dollars a barrel, against 69 dollars in 2025, and jet fuel at 152 dollars a barrel, compared to 90 dollars a year earlier.

The result is a near-halving of industry net profit. It will fall from USD 45.0 billion in 2025, at a 4.2 percent margin, to USD 23.0 billion in 2026, a 2.0 percent margin. Operating profit (EBIT) will be USD 48.0 billion, equal to 4.1 percent of revenue.

Europe best, Middle East in the red

By region, Europe will post the highest net profit at USD 9.6 billion. North America follows with USD 9.4 billion, and Asia-Pacific with USD 6.6 billion. The Middle East will record a net loss of USD 4.3 billion and a negative operating margin of minus 2.7 percent. In the region, RPK traffic will shrink by 11.4 percent and seat capacity by 4.4 percent.

Africa is growing fastest, with RPKs set to rise by 10.0 percent. All 2026 figures are forecasts based on data from June 2026, not achieved results. In the airline business, such estimates can change within a few months.